By Zach Arnold

The fight card as it stands today:

- UFC Light Heavyweight title match: Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin (205 pounds)
- Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida (185 pounds)
- Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau (155 pounds)
- Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle (170 pounds)
- Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio (155 pounds)
- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully (265 pounds)
- Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller (155 pounds)
- Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver (155 pounds)
- Corey Hill vs. Justin Buchholz (155 pounds)

Main event: Jackson vs. Griffin

UFC thought that there would be a lot more excitement generated for this fight by having two extremely charismatic babyfaces appear as coaches on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter reality TV show. Instead, both men had little or no animosity towards each other by the end of the TV series and the ‘normal’ TUF formula of having two coaches angry at each other simply did not pan out.

Without the animosity between the two fighters, what we’re left with is a fight involving a heavy favorite (Jackson) against a heavy, scrappy underdog (Griffin). It should be a fun fight to watch and no one at home will likely be disappointed in how it turns out.

The big question is whether or not Griffin has a real chance of winning this fight, and if so, what kind of game plan he needs to pull off the upset. Jordan Breen, writer for Sherdog.com, believes that Griffin needs to pull off a two-pronged solution in order to stay competitive in the title match.

“The most questionable part of Rampage’s game is still his defense in the Thai plumb. Griffin utilized knees well in the past, but has gotten away from it. It may be an interesting angle to test if he can’t strike from a distance. However, on the feet, Griffin would have to be nigh-perfect to score a victory since Rampage is the far better striker at range. The other operative question will be how Griffin can defend against ground-and-pound, and if he can renew the guard game he showed in his pre-UFC career. If he can go back to what initially earned him a chance on The Ultimate Fighter’s first season, he should at least make the bout competitive.”

Semi main-event: Cote vs. Almeida

The semi-main event of UFC 86 features a fight with next-to-no hype whatsoever. Patrick Cote (12-4) is to face veteran fighter Ricardo Almeida (9-2). Cote has won four straight fights and usually looks to finish his fights very quickly. Almeida, who made a name for himself in Japan many years ago, is going to fight for the second time in the last four years. Almeida has beaten a lot of quality opponents, including Kazuo Misaki and Nathan Marquardt. While Cote is the likely underdog going into this fight, it should be a very fun contest to watch.

“Almeida has all the technical skills on the ground to embarrass Cote, whose Achilles’ heel has been poor defensive grappling,” stated Mr. Breen of Sherdog.com. “The last time Cote really spent time on his back with someone who can get it done on the floor, he was embarrassed by Travis Lutter. What
bodes well for Almeida is that the bout can be sized up favorably for him, and that’s with us only knowing what he could bring to the table four or five years ago. If he has legitimately improved himself in the gym in the last four years, he could trounce Cote.”

Undercard action

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (28-8) faces Gleison Tibau (15-5) in a match that, on paper, Stevenson should win. Joe has won four out of his last five fights (his only recent loss to BJ Penn) and is facing a tough, but beatable opponent in Tibau. Gleison has won four out of his last five fights (his only recent loss to Tyson Griffin).

Josh Koscheck (10-2) faces Chris Lytle (25-15-5) in a match that should be tailor-made for Koscheck to win. Koscheck has won six out of his last seven fights (including a recent loss to UFC’s 170-pound champion, Georges St. Pierre), whereas Lytle has gone 3-3 in his last six fights (including losses to Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, and Thiago Alves).

In a bout that definitely could be fight-of-the-night material, Tyson Griffin (11-1) squares off against Marcus Aurelio (16-5) from American Top Team. On paper, everything favors Griffin in this fight (age, fight style). Despite the fact that Aurelio is an underdog, he is battle-tested and has beaten top fighters such as Takanori Gomi. Jordan Breen, however, thinks that Griffin should win the fight relatively easily.

“Those who believe in Aurelio will champion him until the death, but against wrestlers with decent submission defense he’s generally inert. Clay Guida is perhaps more of a submission liability than Griffin is, and in spite of one ridiculous scorecard in his favor, Aurelio was dominated from start to finish. Griffin should be able to land more on the feet, and control from the top to a decision. Aurelio will probably stick around in the UFC because of both his seemingly undying hype, and the fact that while he’ll lose to the top lightweight contenders, he’ll destroy lower and midlevel guys as we saw in his destructions of Luke Caudillo and Ryan Roberts.”

In a win-or-go-home match, former UFC Heavyweight title contender Gabriel Gonzaga (8-3) faces Justin McCully (8-3-2) in a match that Gonzaga clearly needs to win or else his job as a UFC fighter may be in jeopardy. Even with recent losses to Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum, Gonzaga is clearly a heavy favorite going into this fight and if he doesn’t put on a spectacular performance, it’s off to Elite XC or another promotion for the Brazilian heavyweight. If McCully pulls off the upset, suddenly things open up for him in terms of being booked in higher-profile UFC heavyweight bouts.

Ultimate Fighter 5 alumni member Cole Miller (13-3) faces Jorge Gurgel (12-3) in a match that on paper Miller should win, but will nonetheless provide a good test for the young fighter who trains out of the ATT camp in Florida. Like Griffin vs. Aurelio, this could be a show-stealer and as long as it doesn’t go to the scorecards, it should (well, maybe) air on UFC’s main PPV broadcast.