By Zack Arnold
You haven’t heard much about this Saturday’s card in Atlanta, Georgia. Seemingly, everyone believes that they already know the outcomes of the fights taking place this weekend. If there is one thing we have learned about UFC cards, it is that the outcomes are much less predictable than outcomes on lower-level MMA fight cards. Let’s take a look at the lines for all of the major fights on the UFC 88 card:
Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans
BodogLife: Liddell (-290) vs. Evans (+230)
BetUS: Liddell (-260) vs. Evans (+200)
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
BodogLife: Franklin (-265) vs. Hamill (+205)
BetUS: Franklin (-230) vs. Hamill (+180)
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
BodogLife: Henderson (-245) vs. Palhares (+195)
BetUS: Henderson (-200) vs. Palhares (+160)
Karo Parisyan vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
BodogLife: Parisyan (-220) vs. Yoshida (+180)
BetUS: Parisyan (-260) vs. Yoshida (+200)
Ryo Chonan vs. Roan Carneiro
BodogLife: Chonan (-125) vs. Carneiro (-105)
BetUS: Chono (-130) vs. Carneiro (-110)
Nathan Marquardt vs. Martin Kampmann
BodogLife: Marquardt (-150) vs. Kampmann (+120)
BetUS: Marquardt (-150) vs. Kampmann (+110)
Thiago Tavares vs. Kurt Pellegrino
BodogLife: Tavares (-325) vs. Pellegrino (+250)
Notes: Evans has one chance to beat Liddell and that one chance involves Liddell being injured. Has he fully recovered from the torn hamstring injury? Plus, Evans is training with Greg Jackson, who formulated Keith Jardine’s successful game plan last year against Liddell. Will lightning strike twice?
If you are looking for a ’safer’ underdog, Matt Hamill will raise some interest at +205. Franklin is fighting up a new weight class (205 pounds instead of 185 pounds) and he’s facing a very hungry, powerful fighter who has built up some wins recently. Franklin has taken a lot of punishment in his recent fights and Hamill is not a slouch. On paper, picking Franklin based on his experience is the predictable choice. However, out of all of the available underdogs on this fight card, Hamill has the best shot of pulling off a big upset.
It will be interesting to see if Karo Parisyan can pull off a win against Cage Force fighter Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Both are strong judo players and we know what Parisyan’s track record in UFC is. He usually wins his fights by decision. You could see that happening here, although given Parisyan’s recent panic-related health issues (which he admitted in an interview with Sherdog) maybe there is an opening for Yoshida to pull off an upset. Likely, he won’t.
Martin Kampmann is a very dangerous fighter in the 185-pound division when he’s healthy. He’s coming off of a knee injury and he could very well make a statement against Marquardt. The fact that Marquardt is only -150 on the sportsbooks shows two things: a) not a ton of respect for Marquardt and b) a lot of respect for Kampmann’s upside in his MMA career.
Rousimar Palhares, the impressive Brazilian Top Team standout (8-1), has never faced anyone as tough as Dan Henderson. On paper, Henderson’s defense should be able to neutralize Rousimar’s submission skills. You can’t judge Henderson’s UFC career as a failure because of the high-level of competition he’s faced. (He faced Rampage in London and gave him five rounds of hell and he faced a buzzsaw in Anderson Silva who picked him apart with ease.)
