By Zach Arnold

If you take a look at the odds set for this weekend’s fights on the Elite XC card in Stockton, California, you might get the impression that the show is made up entirely of mismatches that nobody wants to see or bet on.

Why?

I’m not sure. There are some quality fights on the card. While some of the top matches on the show feature heavy favorites, there’s plenty of action to bet on in regards to this weekend’s card. We’ll focus in on the odds for all the matches on the show, along with what fighters have a good chance of pulling off an upset and which fighters you should avoid placing money on in sucker bets.

Scott Smith vs. Robbie Lawler

BetUS odds: Lawler (-260) vs. Smith (+200)
BodogLife odds: Lawler (-240) vs. Smith (+190)
Bookmaker odds: Lawler (-220) vs. Smith (+180)

Notes: This is a re-match from EXC’s debut show last May in New Jersey. The fight was stopped due to an accident, and the bout was ruled a no-contest. The odds for both fighters here are about the same as they were going into the first fight. Has anything changed since then? Likely not. The one thing we do know is that Smith, while an underdog to the aggressive Lawler, can hang with Lawler in the cage. He’s tough and he looks to finish a fight. If the re-match is anything like the first bout, then Smith definitely has a shot of making Lawler work extremely hard to get a win.

At +200, is Smith a sucker bet? If you put a lot of money on him, probably so. However, if you are willing to play it conservative and take a stab on Smith with some small coin, then the play might pay off. Make no mistake about it — Lawler is the favorite going into the fight for a very good reason. However, Smith’s stand-up skills are no joke and it will be a good main event.

If you’re gung-ho on Lawler winning the fight, Bookmaker has the best play at -220. That’s an awfully high number for Lawler going into this re-match, however.

Nick Thompson vs. Jake Shields

BetUS odds: Shields (-350) vs. Thompson (+250)
BodogLife odds: Shields (-340) vs. Thompson (+260)
Bookmaker odds: Shields (-350) vs. Thompson (+280)

Notes: The way the bookmakers are treating this fight, you’d think that Nick Thompson is as big of an underdog as Chris Lytle was going into his fight against Josh Koscheck at the last UFC PPV event.

Yes, we all know the story about Nick Thompson by now. Fighting on Saturday, taking the bar exam on Monday. Juggling a hectic schedule, facing a world-class fighter in Jake Shields, impossible for Thompson to win on Saturday, blah blah blah.

You do know that Thompson hasn’t lost in over two years, right? You do know that he beat Eddie Alvarez, the man who has made a name for himself in the DREAM ring? The way people are treating Thompson in this fight, you would think the guy is a jobber. He’s not. He’s a pretty damn good fighter from Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, the same place where Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk train at. Thompson’s past track record indicates that when he faces a high-level fighter like Yushin Okami or Karo Parisyan, he loses.

Shields is coming off of an injury, and Thompson is by far the toughest opponent he is facing in over two years.

Is betting on Thompson a sucker bet here? Thompson is certainly not a dog like Lytle was going into his fight against Koscheck, but is he the same kind of dog that bookmakers had Marcus Aurelio being against Tyson Griffin? Maybe.

Nick Diaz vs. Thomas “Wildman” Denny

BetUS odds: Diaz (-700) vs. Denny (+500)
BodogLife odds: Diaz (-650) vs. Denny (+450)
Bookmaker odds: Diaz (-600) vs. Denny (+450)

Notes: Diaz is fighting in home town of Stockton and he will probably put on the performance of a lifetime. These odds are amazing, because Diaz is a bigger favorite here than Fedor was over Choi Hong-Man and Gabriel Gonzaga over Justin McCully.

Stay away from this line!

Antonio “Big Foot” Silva vs. Justin Eilers

BetUS odds: Silva (-600) vs. Eilers (+450)
BodogLife odds: Silva (-575) vs. Eilers (+375)
Bookmaker odds: Silva (-550) vs. Eilers (+400)

Notes: This is for the EXC heavyweight title. Big Foot is awesome in this weight class, and the only chance Eilers has of making this competitive is if he can knock out Silva. Eilers recently stated in an interview that he plans on doing just that (calling round three for the KO). Good luck to him.

This looks like a real sucker bet. Stay away.

Shayna Baszler vs. Cristiane Cyborg

BetUS odds: Baszler (-185) vs. Cyborg (+145)
BodogLife odds: Baszler (-200) vs. Cyborg (+160)
Bookmaker odds: Baszler (-180) vs. Cyborg (+150)

Notes: Since training and gameplanning with Josh Barnett, Shayna is a monster in the cage. Who can stop her? The only catch to this fight is that Baszler has had a limited amount of time to train for Cyborg because she was booked in a late fashion for the show.

All things equal, Baszler makes an excellent play here at -180/-185. She should win and in dominant fashion. Get on her bandwagon right now.

Rafael Feijao vs. Travis Galbraith

BetUS odds: Feijao (-500) vs. Galbraith (+350)
BodogLife odds: Feijao (-500) vs. Galbraith (+350)
Bookmaker odds: Feijao (-450) vs. Galbraith (+370)

Notes: In a recent interview we conducted with Jeremy Lappen, Mr. Lappen said that EXC management struggled to find an opponent for Feijao because he’s so good. According to Lappen, Galbraith was the only one to step up to the plate and take the fight offer.

Feijao should outclass him here big time, so there’s no use in betting on this fight.

Brian Caraway vs. Wilson Reis

BetUS odds: Reis (-135) vs. Caraway (+105)
BodogLife odds: Reis (-150) vs. Caraway (+120)
Bookmaker odds: Reis (-150) vs. Caraway (+120)

Notes: Reis is 4-0 at Featherweight and his last three wins have come by submission. He’s a black-belt in BJJ. Caraway is a wrestler based out of Washington state and has a great submission game. This is going to be a highly competitive bout and Caraway at +120 is certainly an interesting play to consider here.