By Zach Arnold

For those of you who are interested in the lines that have been set by the online sportsbooks for the upcoming UFC 86 event, we are here to provide you with the numbers. (Informational purposes, only.) The books we will be focusing on here are BetUS, BodogLife, and Bookmaker.

UFC Light Heavyweight title match: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (champion) vs. Forrest Griffin (challenger)

BetUS & Bodoglife odds: Jackson (-260) vs. Griffin (+200)
Bookmaker odds: Jackson (-265) vs. Griffin (+215)

Analysis: Even if you think that Rampage is a heavy favorite in this fight, you might be getting the right price at +215 to take a shot in the dark on Griffin winning the fight. As Jordan Breen of Sherdog pointed out in our UFC 86 event preview, Griffin has an opportunity to get Jackson in a Thai clinch and punish the champion. Don’t think for one second that this isn’t a priority for Forrest in training, given that he trains at one of the best fight camps in the world (Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas). While he suffered a loss at the hands of Keith Jardine, Griffin came back strong last year with a win over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua of PRIDE fame. You could do worse than betting on Griffin to pull off the upset.

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida (185 pounds)

BetUS odds: Cote (-115) vs. Almeida (-115)
Bodoglife odds: Cote (-105) vs. Almeida (-125)
Bookmaker odds: Cote (+110) vs. Almeida (-140)

Analysis: These are some ugly odds and will likely discourage any major action from taking place at the sportsbooks. Your best play is Almeida at -115, but even then… that’s not exactly the most enticing line. Almeida won his UFC 81 fight against Rob Yundt, but you have to go back several years to find some of his big wins in MMA (including good showings against Ryo Chonan and Nathan Marquardt). Cote is a good fighter who is very competitive against strikers, but has had problems in the past facing ground specialists (like Travis Lutter and Joe Doerksen).

FightOpinion.com radio host Jeff Thaler believes that this is a close match-up given the contrasting styles of the two fighters.

“This is a case of one fighter, Cote, wanting to keep the fight standing and his opponent, Almeida, wanting to take it to the ground. Cote has to be able to impose his will standing and remain aggressive without giving an opening for Almeida’s take-down. If Almeida can take Cote to the ground and Cote finds himself on the bottom, he needs to play a very conservative game with his guard and look for opportunities to cage walk or push-Almeida away so he can stand. If Cote cannot get back to his feet, he would be well advised to tie Almeida-up and try to get the referee to stand up the fight. Conversely, you would expect Almeida, a high-level BJJ black belt, to try and play the classic BJJ game – pass the guard and look for a submission. He is definitely much slicker than Cote on the ground, but that will not matter if the fight stays standing or if he is forced to pull guard and ends up getting worn down from a ground and pound attack. The question whether Ålmeida can get top position on the ground will probably be what ends up determining the winner in this fight.”

Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau (155 pounds)

BetUS odds: Stevenson (-220) vs. Tibau (+175)
Bodoglife odds: Stevenson (-220) vs. Tibau (+180)
Bookmaker odds: Stevenson (-205) vs. Tibau (+165)

Analysis: Tibau is a good fighter, but is he in the same league as Stevenson? Tibau has lost to fighters like Tyson Griffin and Nick Diaz in the past. Plus, three of his last five fights have gone the distance. If you’re feeling frisky, Tibau at +180 might be worth a little (but not a lot of) action.

Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle (170 pounds)

BetUS odds: Koscheck (-330) vs. Lytle (+220)
Bodoglife odds: Koscheck (-315) vs. Lytle (+240)
Bookmaker odds: Koscheck (-320) vs. Lytle (+260)

Analysis: Koscheck should win the fight. How’s that for being succinct? Plus, Koscheck has been recently training with Josh Thomson… the same Josh Thomson who humbled Gilbert Melendez at the recent Strikeforce event in San Jose. I’m not in love with any sort of big play on Lytle, even at +260.

Despite the fact that I think this could be a sucker bet, my radio co-host Mr. Thaler believes otherwise.

“Koscheck has to impose his will with his wrestling. While Koscheck has seemed eager to show off improved stand-up skills, his biggest advantage in this fight will come when he puts Lytle on the mat. If Koscheck does take it to the ground, it will be interesting to see how his improved BJJ skills match up with the experienced and well-rounded Lytle. If Koscheck can pass Lytle’s guard when he goes to the ground it will be a good night for Koscheck. Lytle needs to hope that Koscheck’s explosive athleticism is not too much for him. The old “stick and move” would seem to be Lytle’s best strategy. He should also keep an eye out to see if Koscheck gets careless in the clinch, because a Lytle take-down followed by ground and pound would be huge, and could end up being the difference in the match.”

Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio (155 pounds)

BetUS odds: Griffin (-350) vs. Aurelio (+250)
Bookmaker odds: Griffin (-350) vs. Aurelio (+280)

Analysis: This could be a really fun fight to watch. Griffin is 11-1 and always makes things exciting. With that said, three of his last four fights have gone to decision. Aurelio has been heavily touted since his days in PRIDE (where he beat Takanori Gomi). A lot of people may be bearish right on Aurelio in UFC, but you might be bullish on taking him to win a decision at +280. It’s a much more solid play, in my opinion, than laying some coin on Lytle beating Koscheck.

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully (265 pounds)

Bodoglife odds: Gonzaga (-600) vs. McCully (+400)

Analysis: Stay as far away from this line as you possibly can.

Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller (155 pounds)

BetUS odds: Miller (-135) vs. Gurgel (+105)
Bodoglife odds: Miller (-130) vs. Gurgel (even)
Bookmaker odds: Miller (-145) vs. Gurgel (+115)

Analysis: The most solid play here is Miller at -130 and you should probably play the pick with confidence. In his last five fights, Gurgel has gone the distance in all five of them. If the odds were a little more favorable, then picking Gurgel in this spot might be tempting. However, Miller is the favorite here – and for good reason, too.